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By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman Who will win Saturday's $600,000Alabama (G1) at Saratoga? Eight three-year-old fillieshave entered the 1 1/4-mile dirt contest, but one notable name is missing fromthe entries. Thorpedo Anna, the runaway division leader after winning theKentucky Oaks (G1), Acorn (G1), and Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), ispassing the Alabama in favor of a start against males in next week's Travers(G1). Thorpedo Anna would have beenan odds-on choice to add the Alabama to her decorated record. But her absencedoesn't necessarily make the race inscrutable. To the contrary, if ThorpedoAnna would have been an obvious win choice, isn't Coaching Club American Oaksrunner-up #7 Candied (7-5) aperfectly logical alternative?
There's a lot to like aboutCandied. She's the only proven Grade 1 winner in the Alabama field, having ralliedfrom midfield to win the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland last fall by one length.She followed up that effort with a game third-place run in the Breeders' CupJuvenile Fillies (G1), in which she finished only three-quarters of a lengthbehind future Kentucky Oaks runner-up Just F Y I.
Candied subsequently tookfive months off and ran a bit below form when returning in the Ashland (G1) atKeeneland, finishing fourth by five lengths. But she bounced back nicely in hersecond start of the season, closing from a couple lengths behind a slow pace toconquer older rivals Honor D Lady and Saddle Up Jessie in the Lady's Secret S.at Monmouth Park. Honor D Lady and Saddle Up Jessie flattered that form byreturning to run 1-2 in the Delaware H. (G2).
Winning the Lady's Secret promptedCandied to take on a showdown with Thorpedo Anna in the 1 1/8-mile CoachingClub American Oaks at Saratoga. While Candied proved to be no match for theheavy favorite, she showed a bit more tactical speed than usual and stayed onwell to finish second by 4 1/2 lengths. In turn, Candied pulled four lengthsclear of #1 Intricate (6-1), winnerof the Golden Rod (G2) and runner-up in the Rachel Alexandra (G2).
Candied strikes me as afilly who won't mind stretching out over 1 1/4 miles for trainer Todd Pletcher,who has won the Alabama four times, including two of the last three editions withMalathaat (2021) and Nest (2022). I'm optimistic that getting away fromThorpedo Anna will open the door for Candied to secure her second Grade 1 winin convincing fashion.
Graded stakes winnersIntricate, #2 Chatalas (8-1), and #3 Power Squeeze (9-2) are otherlogical contenders. Of the trio, I slightly prefer the chances of Intricate.Aside from a fifth-place finish in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), Intricate hasn'trun a bad race since winning her debut at Keeneland last fall, and it's worthnoting she's the only horse to have ever defeated Thorpedo Anna, doing so by 51/4 lengths in the Golden Rod last fall.
But to round out exacta tickets,I prefer a couple of up-and-comers.
The first is #4 Just Basking (5-1), who proved shecan handle 1 1/4 miles when smashing a maiden special weight during the springmeet at Churchill Downs by 7 3/4 lengths. She's since proven her worth againststakes competition, launching a last-to-first rally to dominate the Iowa Oaks by4 3/4 lengths. Both her sire (Arrogate) and dam sire (Blame) won the Breeders'Cup Classic (G1) over 1 1/4 miles, so Just Basking is bred to shine over classicdistances and should be gaining ground down the Alabama homestretch.
#6 Miss Justify (6-1),a second Pletcher trainee, is also worth a long look. She's gone 2-for-2 sincestretching out from sprints to routes. First, she employed dueling tactics towin a one-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs by 2 1/2lengths. Then she rallied from midfield to take Saratoga's one-mile Wilton S.by one length. Stretching out another quarter-mile in distance for the Alabamais a question mark, but Miss Justify is steadily improving and has the tacticalspeed to be a factor from the outset. Don't count her out of the mix.
Selections:
1st: Candied
2nd: Just Basking
3rd: Miss Justify
Now it's your turn! Who doyou like in the Alabama?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. fa*ger to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
